| 13 August 2010 | Strong growth in Q2 likely to be revised down and all three PMI surveys showed slowing activity in July. Headline inflation set to remain above target but underlying price pressures remain subdued, so base rates should stay on hold |
| 15 July 2010 | Despite strong output data pointing to 0.6% rise in Q2 GDP, tax rises and spending cuts in June budget now expected to hold 2010 growth down to just 1.1% |
| 16 June 2010 | GDP growth still forecast at just over 1% in 2010, but emergency budget will see spending cuts and tax rises, further constraining consumers and investment |
| 17 May 2010 | Coalition government to announce emergency budget in June, with expected upward revision to Q1 growth helping to hold 2010 fiscal deficit close to 11% of GDP |
| 14 April 2010 | Another solid rise in GDP likely in Q1 this year after 0.4% growth in Q4 2009, outpacing the Eurozone, but coming fiscal squeeze may keep growth subdued |
| 17 March 2010 | Upward revision to Q4 GDP, but 2009 decline put at 5% and no sign of real recovery yet with private and public spending weak and investment still falling |
| 15 February 2010 | Continuing signs of modest recovery as exports improve but, with major fiscal squeeze to come, rates likely to remain on hold this year |
| 18 January 2010 | Economy probably returned to growth in Q4 and, with consumer outlook improving, 2010 GDP growth forecast raised to 1.2% |
| 15 December 2009 | Surveys still point to growth, and stronger consumer demand should boost Q4, but upturn will be patchy in 2010 and fiscal deficit will remain high |
| 17 November 2009 | Q3 GDP expected to be revised up, with most data indicating that recovery is under way, but growth seen at just 0.8% in 2010 |
| 15 October 2009 | Return to slight growth seen in Q3 despite drop in August manufacturing output, but patchy recovery means monetary policy will stay loose |
| 14 September 2009 | Economy seen posting slight growth in Q3, but recovery will be uneven heading into 2010 as consumer demand struggles |
| 14 August 2009 | GDP forecast for 2009 downgraded in response to a sharper than expected contraction in Q2. Despite encouraging survey data in July, we continue to expect a slow recovery as the retrenchments of businesses and consumers still have some way to run |
| 15 July 2009 | Revision to Q1 means GDP may contract 4.4% this year despite increasingly positive survey signals for Q2 growth |
| 15 June 2009 | Survey evidence and lower destocking point to better Q2, but weak consumer spending now suggests 4.1% GDP fall in 2009 |
| 15 May 2009 | GDP fall of 1.9% in Q1 means full-year contraction of 4% now likely despite signs that pace of decline is easing in Q2 |
| 17 April 2009 | Surveys point to some slowing in the pace of decline though GDP is expected to contract by 3.4% this year. Dire state of public finances leaves little room for further fiscal boost |
| 13 March 2009 | Further monetary policy action from the BoE, but another sharp drop in Q1 GDP likely to lead to full-year decline of 3.2% |
| 13 February 2009 | Likely further sharp drop in Q1 GDP and rising jobless expected to bring fresh monetary policy stimulus |
| 15 January 2009 | Large-scale job losses seen as GDP looks set to fall by around 1% in both Q4 and Q1 despite continued monetary easing |
| 15 December 2008 | GDP likely to fall 1% in Q4 as business and consumer sentiment slide; economy now seen contracting 2% in 2009 |
| 18 November 2008 | GDP seen falling 1% in 2009, and private consumption by 1.6%, despite further rate cuts and upcoming fiscal stimulus |
| 14 October 2008 | GDP now seen contracting in 2009 as banking woes spread to other sectors despite bailout package and aggressive monetary easing |
| 11 September 2008 | Continued decline in housing market and weak business survey data point to fall in Q3 GDP, but no rate cut yet |
| 15 August 2008 | Touch-and-go whether the UK will escape a technical recession. Weak manufacturing despite more competitive pound and confidence very low in other sectors |
| 23 July 2008 | Risk of recession rising as housing market collapse and high food and fuel prices undermine consumer demand |
| 17 June 2008 | Growth forecasts revised lower as housing market problems intensify and further rate cuts are delayed as inflation moves higher |
| 15 May 2008 | Rates left on hold as inflation jumps to 3%, Q1 GDP growth holds up better than expected and employment rises |
| 17 April 2008 | Growth forecast for 2009 cut to 2.2% as credit crunch hits consumer demand and housing market – more interest rate cuts expected |
| 14 March 2008 | Budget to have little impact - GDP growth still seen at 1.9% this year, but downside risks could rise if inflation stays high |
| 22 February 2008 | Economy still some way from recession as survey data remain resilient, so market expectations of sharp rate cuts may be misplaced |
| 18 January 2008 | GDP growth still seen slowing to 1.9% this year, but above-target inflation may mean fewer rate cuts than the market expects |
| 14 December 2007 | Weak housing market and credit squeeze to cut GDP growth to 1.9% in 2008, reinforcing prospect of further rate cuts |
| 15 November 2007 | Signs of slower growth in Q4 and subdued wage inflation suggest case for early cut in interest rates is rising |
| 17 October 2007 | GDP growth still seen at 3% this year but expected slowdown in 2008 will be mitigated by impact of lower interest rates |
| 26 September 2007 | Growth prospects weakened by financial market turmoil, adding to chances of early interest rate cut as inflation dips to 1.8% |
| 1 August 2007 | Growth accelerates in Q2, as consumer demand holds up, as has the housing market, but can it last? |
| 13 July 2007 | Interest rates set to rise further on inflation concerns but risk of overkill as wage pressures remain subdued |
| 6 June 2007 | Further monetary tightening still expected but some signs of weaker demand could see rates falling by end-year |
| 6 June 2007 | Further monetary tightening still expected but some signs of weaker demand could see rates falling by end-year |
| 9 May 2007 | Interest rates to rise again this month, but could be falling by end-year as inflation distortions unwind |
| 12 April 2007 | Buoyant services to support growth of 2.7% this year, but above-target inflation to trigger one more rate rise |
| 13 March 2007 | Continued strong growth seen this year, but higher interest rates to slow domestic demand in 2008 |
| 6 February 2007 | Buoyant service sector drove GDP growth in Q4, looks set to underpin 2.7% growth in 2007 |
| 18 January 2007 | Interest rates expected to rise further in H1 as continued strong growth adds to inflation risks |
| 1 December 2006 | Interest rates have probably peaked, with inflation seen returning to target and growth set to slow |
| 31 October 2006 | Growth to ease in Q4, but still strong heading into 2007; rates set to be raised once more by end-year |
| 30 October 2006 | Is buy-to-let demand supporting the housing market? |
| 24 October 2006 | The inflation ‘wedge’ |
| 16 October 2006 | Estimating the UK’s potential |
| 9 October 2006 | London’s strength emerges |
| 2 October 2006 | Prospects for business investment |
| 29 September 2006 | Growth forecast to slow to 2.3% next year on subdued domestic demand and inflation may be below target by mid-2007 |
| 25 September 2006 | Industry growth exceeding expectations |
| 18 September 2006 | Inflation rises, with more to come, but 3% limit unlikely to be breached |
| 18 July 2006 | Economy continues to grow at sustainable rate and inflation above 2.0% target; pressure still for interest rates to rise |
| 28 June 2006 | Consumer demand and housing market strengthening again; together with small rise in inflation, maintains some pressure for higher rates |
| 7 June 2006 | Consumer demand and business optimism rising so pressure for tighter monetary policy remains; but MPC likely to keep rates on hold this week |
| 25 May 2006 | Growth remains around sustainable rate, but low spare capacity suggests pressure for higher interest rates may be mounting |
| 8 May 2006 | Growth close to sustainable rate in Q1, surveys point to acceleration; markets pricing in interest rate rise by end-year but we see rates remaining on hold |
| 20 April 2006 | Survey data suggest that growth is maintaining its recent strength, while house prices are rising strongly again; but still little prospect of early rate change |
| 3 April 2006 | Economy growing around trend rate and inflation at target level; interest rates therefore unlikely to change for some time |
| 23 March 2006 | Budget a macroeconomic non-event, Brown emphasises his commitment to invest in education; but medium-term borrowing forecasts still over-optimistic |
| 27 February 2006 | Data volatile and growth outlook uncertain, but latest BoE Inflation Report paints positive picture; rates remain on hold for time being |
| 3 February 2006 | Strong retail sales and rising house prices counterbalanced by higher unemployment; rates on hold for now but likely to be reduced later this year |
| 13 January 2006 | Increasing retail sales and rising house prices in recent months suggest that growth may be picking up; interest rates on hold for now |
| 6 December 2005 | Slower growth raises budget deficit but has not derailed public finances, but PBR hides significant long-term changes in taxation and spending |
| 25 November 2005 | Domestic demand remains weak but some signs of recovery in housing market; bias probably remains towards further cut in interest rates |
| 14 November 2005 | Growth remains soft but few signs that economy will slip into recession; with inflation above BoE 2.0% target, interest rates are on hold for some time yet |
| 28 October 2005 | Growth continues to slow, leaving prospect of further rate cuts in coming months, but BoE still warning against expectations of significantly lower rates |
| 17 October 2005 | Growth continues to slow amid mounting speculation that BoE could lower rates again soon; King warns about inflation risks, dampens some rate hopes |
| 30 September 2005 | Consumer demand continues to slow, Brown admits that growth will be below budget forecast, at around 2.0-2.5%; interest rates likely to be lowered further |
| 9 September 2005 | MPC leaves interest rates unchanged; considerable disagreement about whether rates will be cut again in next few months |
| 20 July 2005 | Growth continues to slow, reinforcing expectations of lower interest rates in next few months |
| 30 June 2005 | Interest rates likely to be cut towards end year due to continued weakness in domestic demand, with inflation pressures remaining benign |
| 17 June 2005 | No major policy shift seen when Brown replaces Blair, but change in rhetoric, different stance on taxes and pension policy and more euroscepticism |
| 8 June 2005 | Consumer demand remains weak but may yet rebound, so no interest rate cut until later in year despite benign inflation outlook |
| 18 May 2005 | Lower growth forecasts for 2005-07 and unchanged inflation expectations suggest that next move in interest rates will be down, but no early change likely |
| 28 April 2005 | Slowing retail sales suggest that growth has probably slowed, but inflation is rising; rates still on hold, easing in monetary policy likely later this year |
| 5 April 2005 | Economic indicators still mixed, with some signs of slowdown amid some fears of inflationary pressure; no change in rates this week, possibly not this year |
| 17 March 2005 | Budget sets stage for election with sweeteners for key parts of electorate; but overall fiscal stance unchanged and need for post-election tax increases remains |
| 9 March 2005 | Economic activity indicators mixed, but growth probably slowing still, inflation low but picking up slowly; interest rates on hold this week and until after election |
| 9 February 2005 | Growth sustained at slower rate as housing market stabilises; interest rates look set to remain on hold for some months, lower rates possible in H2 |
| 14 January 2005 | Inconclusive signals on state of consumer demand and extent of slowdown in economic growth; monetary policy on hold for some time yet |
| 6 December 2004 | Few surprises in government’s Pre-Budget Report, sets scene for general election towards middle of next year |
| 2 December 2004 | Today’s Pre-Budget Report comes against background of considerable uncertainty about growth and inflation prospects |
| 4 November 2004 | Inflation remains benign despite high oil prices; risks to growth mean that interest rates will remain on hold for some months |
| 8 October 2004 | Third successive fall in manufacturing and weakening survey data confirm economy slowing; MPC leaves rates on hold, prospects of another hike recede |
| 8 September 2004 | Evidence of economic slowdown mounts ahead of MPC meeting; lower house prices and manufacturing/retail sales weakness should see rates on hold |
| 12 July 2004 | Monetary policy focusing on house prices; chancellor to become more miserly in comprehensive spending review as public finances slip |
| 16 June 2004 | Inflation jumps to 13-month high but underlying position still positive; MPC increasingly concerned about house price problem |
| 6 May 2004 | House prices rising again and consumer demand remains strong; but offsetting reasons to suggest interest rates are not far from peak |
| 18 March 2004 | Budget implies little change in short-term fiscal stance but new public spending plans heighten risk that higher taxes will be needed after election |
| 8 March 2004 | Impact of EU enlargement on UK economy will be small, claims of major influx of migrants are exaggerated; new EU-8 account for less than 2% of UK exports |
| 11 December 2003 | Pre-Budget Report: tough choices, or easy way out? |
| 2 December 2003 | Trade gap with EU reaches all-time high in Q3 but cannot be explained by relative demand alone; is loss of non-price competitiveness to blame? |
| 19 November 2003 | Changing demands on monetary policy ahead of switch to HICP inflation targeting and benign October inflation suggest unchanged rates in December |
| 14 November 2003 | Growth remains soft but few signs that economy will slip into recession; with inflation above BoE 2.0% target, interest rates are on hold for some time yet |
| 8 October 2003 | Economic history rewritten as H1 2003 weakness is revised away; despite stronger growth, interest rates to remain on hold until next year |
| 23 June 2003 | Adopting harmonised inflation changes target and suggests scope for easier monetary policy, but in practice is unlikely to trigger interest rate cut |
| 10 April 2003 | Budget a non-event from macroeconomic perspective and micro policies too small to make any difference; EMU looks to be ruled out for now |
| 7 April 2003 | Limited scope for further spending, but higher taxes possible as substantial increases in public borrowing and weaker economic growth are expected |
| 19 March 2003 | Fear of war takes toll on economy; but despite gloom the UK is well placed to ride it out, although scope for further budget measures is limited |
| 28 January 2003 | Growth slows in Q4 but life remains good for consumers; despite gloomy warnings, fears about possible generalised crash in house prices are overplayed |
| 28 November 2002 | Chancellor announces higher borrowing as expected, but remains optimistic on growth and its composition going forward |
| 5 November 2002 | MPC meets amid talk of deflationary risks; these are overstated, but rates are expected to fall by end year |
| 7 October 2002 | Housing market boom continues so don’t write off consumers just yet; MPC stands ready to cut rates should growth prospects deteriorate substantially |
| 30 July 2002 | GDP posted quarterly growth of 0.9% in Q2, suggesting slowdown is over; but weaker Q3 likely and interest rates may fall further before rising |
| 5 June 2002 | Productivity performance poor, but Treasury optimistic on trend growth |
| 3 May 2002 | GBP entry into EMU at inappropriate rate could be costly and, once inside, economy would be more exposed to economic shocks |
| 18 April 2002 | Budget spending increases funded by over GBP6bn of tax increases, with little impact likely on macroeconomy or interest rate outlook |
| 13 March 2002 | Manufacturing recession continued in January as new economy sectors suffer; repo rate rise limited to 4.5% by end-year as inflationary pressures subdued |
| 22 February 2002 | Blair hints at tax increases to fund NHS but stronger public finances offer scope for higher spending; lower wage growth means modest rate rise in 2002 |
| 18 January 2002 | December retail sales fall, but continuing consumer boom to see 0.25% Q4 GDP growth; inflation undershoot/manufacturing recession to limit rate rises |
| 26 November 2001 | Will economic slowdown undermine Labour’s spending plans? |
| 12 November 2001 | Labour prevarication over EMU may be stage-managed to win over Eurosceptics ahead of possible referendum, sound electoral tactics also |
| 8 November 2001 | UK recessions – anatomy, causes and risks |
| 9 October 2001 | Industry gloom to continue despite surprisingly upbeat monthly figures; public spending plans not threatened but PBR unlikely to see further fiscal loosening |
| 7 September 2001 | Two-speed economy means MPC split the difference, rates on hold; Tories wrangle over new leader, government launches new education strategy |
| 19 July 2001 | Disappointing wage and RPI data add to MPC caution about further rate cuts |
| 9 July 2001 | Manufacturing slides in May, meaning flat Q2 GDP at best; but buoyant consumer demand means MPC will keep rates on hold after no change last week. |
| 6 June 2001 | A rash of buoyant data and proximity of the election mean the MPC will leave interest rates on hold; bookies pay out on a Labour win |
| 24 May 2001 | Labour set to win election on 7 June, the question is by how much; parties divided on tax and spend plans, also on EMU. |
| 10 May 2001 | Announcement of interest rate cut today appears inevitable; 25 bp off rates is most likely outcome, political timetable precludes more aggressive easing. |
| 26 April 2001 | CBI survey shows sharp drop in manufacturing confidence to lowest level in two years; nevertheless a mini-cycle remains the consensus forecast. |
| 12 April 2001 | UK headline earnings growth hits annual 5 per cent in three months to February; March unemployment rate falls to 3.3 per cent, lowest since 1975 |
| 9 April 2001 | Foot-and-mouth disease has small direct impact but larger indirect effects; potential to shave up to 0.65 percentage points off GDP growth this year |
| 28 March 2001 | Economy shakes off early stages of US slowdown, but manufacturing sector in particular is starting to feel exposed |
| 9 March 2001 | Targeted tax cuts strengthen government position in run-up to election; should not prevent further interest rate cuts but may force rates higher next year |
| 7 December 2000 | MPC to leave rates on hold, but slower growth means pendulum swinging towards easier policy in early 2001 as long as large pre-election tax cuts avoided |
| 21 November 2000 | Slower GDP growth expected later this week will add to expectations of lower rates in early 2001; inflation data still very subdued |
| 8 November 2000 | Weaker than expected output numbers add little to current knowledge, economic activity slows modestly; interest rates not moving higher |
| 2 November 2000 | Weak survey data give further evidence of moderating growth and confirm interest rate peak; Chancellor to remain prudent in Pre-Budget Report |
| 11 October 2000 | September retail inflation data disappoint but outturn below MPC projection, with producer prices subdued there is little pressure for interest rate hike |
| 6 October 2000 | Official interest rates remain at 6 per cent as MPC reaffirms lack of enthusiasm for further tightening with prices under control but activity still buoyant |
| 14 September 2000 | Price and earnings data encouraging, but inflation outlook clouded by other concerns; MPC may hold fire in October but further rate hike possible |
| 8 September 2000 | Lack of MPC action suggests chances of further rate hike have diminished as evidence for continuing moderation in economic activity grows |
| 10 August 2000 | MPC raises inflation profile and hints at further interest rate rises to come but lack of action to date suggests reluctance to move |
| 7 August 2000 | Decision to leave interest rates on hold suggests fresh MPC forecasts relatively benign, but possibility of further hike should not be dismissed |
| 27 July 2000 | CBI survey, latest trade figures show exports holding up well but evidence of burgeoning domestic demand worrying and could yet force up interest rates |
| 25 July 2000 | Stronger than expected GDP data leave open possibility of higher interest rates with MPC likely to remain split as some members look towards easier policy |
| 19 July 2000 | Comprehensive Spending Review has no impact on interest rates and is unlikely to fulfil aim of boosting re-election chances of Labour government |
| 14 July 2000 | Disappointing price and ever-tighter labour market data relatively well received, despite deteriorating inflation outlook interest rates seem less likely to move |
| 7 July 2000 | Continuing moderation in economic activity despite stronger industrial output supports view that interest rates have peaked; no MPC change again |
| 30 June 2000 | Latest GDP figures and prospects for the second quarter suggest that MPC can tolerate further GBP weakness without raising interest rates again |
| 14 June 2000 | Latest price indicators apparently benign, but sufficient to suggest that inflation is far from dead; a further interest rate rise remains on the agenda |
| 8 June 2000 | No surprises as MPC keeps interest rates on hold, but output indicators and GBP slide leave open the possibility of another hike to come |
| 22 May 2000 | MPC refocuses on domestic demand, with latest indicators suggesting that interest rates will remain on hold; more downside seen for the GBP |
| 17 May 2000 | Underlying inflation benign as utility prices fall; data confirm that MPC can hold back from higher interest rates despite GBP slippage |
| 12 May 2000 | Current weakness of GBP will raise expectations for a further interest rate hike; industrial output confounds expectations |
| 4 May 2000 | Interest rate decision finely balanced with earnings growth a major concern; but the strength of the GBP makes no change the most likely outcome |
| 20 April 2000 | MPC minutes show reluctance to raise interest rates but latest economic indicators suggest May increase more likely than not |
| 24 March 2000 | MPC minutes, monthly data, budget considerations all point to a further rate hike in April, with little to stand in the way save further weak output numbers |
| 22 March 2000 | Brown eschews tax cuts as budget surplus goes to the health service, debt repayment; but chances of interest rate hike next month rise slightly |
| 17 March 2000 | Conflicting signals from retail sales and labour market data, but further interest rate rises still more likely than not |
| 9 March 2000 | Weak industrial output numbers not fully explained by millennium effects or GBP strength, but make MPC rate hike most improbable |
| 29 February 2000 | Detailed fourth quarter GDP data reveal worrying imbalances; risks to 3.0 per cent current year forecast now seen on the downside |
| 24 February 2000 | MPC adopting less hawkish stance, despite recent worrying data, wary of sterling; outlook still for base rate peak of 6.50 per cent later this year |
| 16 February 2000 | Price developments generally favourable, give little cause for higher interest rates; but still unlikely to prevent further MPC tightening |
| 14 February 2000 | No immediate impact on monetary policy seen from Buiter standing down; unexpectedly weak output numbers increase pressure on MPC to hold back from further rate hikes |
| 7 February 2000 | Portillos new role could prove poisoned chalice for him, it will alter the nature of the debate over the euro, conceivably lead to surprising shifts |
| 1 February 2000 | Fourth quarter GDP data suggest February rate hike not pressing; MPC waiting for fresh forecasts, but hawks to get their way in the end; interest rates to peak at 6.50R0mid-year |
| 26 January 2000 | Consumer price inflation slips further below the euro zone average, as the Bank of England contemplates another rate hike |
| 20 January 2000 | Output and earnings numbers do not make convincing case for further interest rate rise; but fourth quarter GDP data might tip the balance |
| 12 January 2000 | MPC rate hike likely but decision not clear-cut, developments over the New Year give little reason for immediate action, expectations for peak in rates unchanged |
