| 21 July 2010 | Can the recovery in house prices be sustained? | Though the wider economy has seen a weak and patchy recovery since the autumn, the housing market has enjoyed a strong rebound. What's more, this rally has come in spite of a number of the key economic indicators of household's willingness and ability to purchase housing remaining unfavourable. The rebound appears to have been the result of an acute shortage in housing supply, but this has begun to unwind in recent months and, as a result, the market has started to cool. Looking forward the drivers of housing demand are set to remain unfavourable, with the recovery in GDP growth likely to be slow and unemployment set to edge up as the public spending cuts bite. The outlook for mortgage lending is also subdued and pressures on banks to recapitalise and concerns about the possibility of further writedowns will reinforce banks' risk aversion and ensure that credit remains scarce and expensive. As a result, we expect house prices to dip over the coming year. |
| 21 July 2010 | Will aggressive fiscal retrenchment choke off the UK recovery? | The emergency Budget of late-June saw the new Chancellor, George Osborne, initiate a significant acceleration in the pace of fiscal tightening. Our modelling suggests that the Budget measures will damage short-term growth prospects but, other things being equal, the UK should avoid a double dip. Lower government borrowing should feed through into lower long-term interest rates, providing support to households and companies, while the fact that the Chancellor has 'back loaded' a significant proportion of the spending cuts means that there should be time for the recovery to become firmly entrenched before the deepest cuts begin to hit. However, there are a number of risks to the outlook. The government must first provide a credible plan for cutting departmental spending and then provide tangible evidence that it is achieving those cuts, if it is to keep markets onside. It will also be reliant on conditions outside its control remaining favourable, namely the Bank of England keeping monetary policy loose, the pound remaining weak and our most important trading partner, the Eurozone, weathering its own fiscal retrenchment. |
| 22 June 2010 | UK Budget: An ambitious bid to repair the public finances | This was an ambitious bid to repair the public finances, with the Chancellor setting a target of returning the cyclically-adjusted current budget to balance by 2015/16 and then setting out plans to reach this target a year early. The additional tightening is split 77:23 in favour of spending cuts and history tells us that austerity packages which are focused on spending have the best chance of succeeding. In the contact of the hand that the Chancellor had been dealt, this looks like a well crafted Budget. But we are concerned that the OBR has under-estimated the damage that the tightening will do to near-term growth prospects - while the effects are unlikely to be sufficient to push the economy back towards recession, it does suggest that there is some upside risk to the borrowing forecasts. |
| 8 June 2010 | Examining Sectoral Growth in the UK | Since early-2008 the world economy has endured its deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Some commentators suggested that the UK was more vulnerable than other countries because of the long-term pattern of change in the sectoral composition of the UK economy. The period since the end of the 1990s recession was characterised by a progressive shift from primary and secondary industries to tertiary sectors. With the economy in the early stages of what is likely to be a particularly challenging recovery, given the need for considerable fiscal retrenchment and high levels of household indebtedness, there are strong arguments for considering the likely future profile of economic growth. The aim of this report is to examine the concept of re-balancing in the UK. This involves firstly establishing what is meant by “re-balancing’ and assessing whether greater balance would be desirable in the UK. It then involves an assessment of how greater balance might be achieved and how the economy might look were a degree of balance realised.
This report was commissioned by NESTA who have used our analysis to develop their own policy recommendations: http://www.nesta.org.uk/rebalancing_act
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| 20 April 2010 | The UK long-term growth outlook | The last cycle from 1997H1 to 2006H2 saw robust growth in potential output of 2.9% a year. This was the product of a combination of exceptional factors, including strong net inflows of migrants, a decline in the NAIRU, substantial capital deepening and a shift towards high value-added sectors such as financial services. However, we expect growth of just 1.8% a year between 2006H2 and 2018H2; this is partly due to the legacy of the recession, but also because the influence of these exceptional factors will ebb away. Even after 2011, when the recovery has become entrenched, we project growth of just 2.3% a year. |
| 20 April 2010 | The economic outlook for London | Economic conditions in London deteriorated in the second half of 2008, as they did across the UK generally. And in 2009, London is estimated to have experienced one of the worst falls in output of the UK regions. However, with the UK economy now finally out of recession, economic prospects are brightening, and the short-to-medium term outlook is now more promising than it was a few months ago. With the global recovery gaining strength, world trade picking up, capital flows recovering and the weak pound supporting competitiveness, the capital should enjoy a strong rebound in exports of its high value added tradable services. Although the region may lag behind the UK in terms of output growth in 2010, from 2011 onwards we expect the capital to lead the UK recovery. |
| 24 March 2010 | UK Budget: A Budget of two halves | This was a Budget of two halves, but one that was ultimately light on new policy and leaves the big question marks over the medium-term fiscal outlook unanswered. The Chancellor can be commended on resisting the urge to use the undershoot in borrowing this year for a pre-election giveaway. Instead he chose to bank the majority of it and use the rest for some carefully targeted measures to support business and employment. However, the long-held criticism of his medium-term plans remains. His forecasts for growth and borrowing are far too bullish and with scarce detail about the nature of the cuts for 2011 and beyond his plans are lacking in credibility. |
| 19 February 2010 | The outlook for commercial property | The commercial property market was one of the areas to suffer most from the onset of global recession in the first half of 2008 with capital values and leasing activity falling sharply. However, as the economic outlook stabilised in mid-2009, so did real estate indicators and the past six months has seen a strong recovery. But given the weak economic backdrop and the need to refinance a large proportion of existing loans over the next few years, significant question marks remain over the sustainability of the upturn. In our view the bigger risks are all on the downside and with the fundamentals remaining unsupportive it is difficult to see how the recent bounce can be sustained. |
| 18 January 2010 | How should the government fill the fiscal black hole? | Though the recession has wreaked significant damage on the public finances, most of the deficit is structural and will remain in place even as the economy recovers. Significant policy tightening will be required after the spring election, regardless of which party takes power. A political consensus has formed that cuts in public spending will form the bulk of the fiscal tightening and past experience suggests that this is the most effective method of reducing the deficit without unduly harming the wider recovery. But given the scale of the deficit, it is unlikely that tax increases can be avoided. Timing will be crucial - an overly abrupt fiscal tightening could cause the economy to relapse, but unnecessary delay in taking action would increase the risk of a credit downgrade and could require an even greater fiscal adjustment in the future. |
| 18 January 2010 | Why has unemployment not risen more in the recession? | The recession has resulted in the steepest fall in UK GDP since the 1930s yet the decline in employment has been surprisingly modest. This experience has been very different to that of the US where a less severe GDP fall has been met with much steeper cuts in employment and hours and a sharp rise - rather than a fall - in labour productivity. Part of the story is continued growth in public sector employment, but strong trends in profitability and a weak pound have also helped to mitigate the impact on private sector employment. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of measurement errors. The severity of GDP declines in past recessions has often been revised down in subsequent estimates and there is a possibility that the LFS exaggerates the current level of employment. If official data are correct then there will have to be a period of flat employment to allow labour productivity to return to trend. If the data are exaggerating the extent of the fall in labour productivity, the prospects for employment growth look much better. |
| 30 December 2009 | UK GDP per capita lower than at time of last General Election | The recession means that UK GDP per capita – a key measure of economic prosperity and living standards - is lower in real terms now than at the time of the last General Election in 2005. UK GDP per capita is estimated to average £22,700 in 2009, down from £23,000 in 2005 (when measured at today’s prices to adjust for the effects of inflation). The decline in GDP per capita during this parliament contrasts markedly with the strong rises seen through Labour’s first two terms in office. The fall in UK GDP per capita combined with the decline in sterling means that the UK has seen an even sharper decline in its relative living standards compared with other major economies. |
| 22 October 2009 | Imbalances in EU housing markets | Estimation of a set of theory-consistent equations confirm the importance of real income growth relative to housing supply, the user cost of housing and credit market conditions to the determination of real house prices. The results show that much of the post-2001 increase in real house prices in a number of countries including the UK, France, Spain and, especially, Ireland can only be explained with reference to changing credit conditions. The implications for future UK house price movements depend on the future of credit conditions but, even under an optimistic scenario, the model suggests a double dip in house prices, with further falls in 2010 and 2011 despite the markets' recent resurgence. |
| 22 October 2009 | A return to private affluence and public squalor? | Over the past thirty years the divergence in prospects between dynamic, fast-growing, private services and a moribund public sector has been a feature of the UK economy. However, the period since 2001 has seen consumer spending growth slow markedly, eroding the dominance of private services, while at the same time the government has pumped significant amounts of money into front-line public services, greatly increasing its importance to the economy. But these trends will not last with a significant fiscal retrenchment imminent, bringing with it the prospect of much weaker job creation in the public sector. We are also more optimistic about the outlook for private services, once the banking sector has stabilised and world investment flows have recovered. |
| 22 October 2009 | The Economic Outlook for London | The recession, which had its origins in the global financial crisis that began to unfold in mid-2007, has hit London's economy hard. And in the face of ongoing financial sector constraints, a debt overhang and rising unemployment, a strong bounce - of the kind seen in the wake of the early 1990s recession - cannot be realistically expected in the short term. Nevertheless, Oxford Economics' forecasts show the recovery in the capital gaining traction by 2011, with growth into the medium term matching the robust performance of the decade prior to the recession. We expect growth over the period 2011-2019 to outstrip that of the rest of the UK and of most comparable cities across the western world. |
| 17 July 2009 | Will the UK recovery outpace other major economies? | The crisis in the banking sector in the autumn of 2008 triggered a dramatic deterioration in conditions, with all of the major economies contracting sharply in 2008Q4 and 2009Q1. However, the past few months have seen the first signs that the pace of contraction is beginning to slow, both at home and abroad. Recessions brought about by a banking crisis are deeper and take longer to recover from than those caused by other factors and we expect this recession to be no different. The sheer size of the policy stimulus should mean that the US leads the global recovery. However, the UK's own aggressive monetary response, and the weakness of sterling, should ensure the UK follows close on the heels of the US and remains comfortably ahead of the major Eurozone nations, where the policy response has been considerably slower and more timid. |
| 17 July 2009 | Will the recession bring about a rebalancing of the UK economy | The roots of the current world financial crisis and deep recession lie in the large imbalances that built up over the past two decades. Changes in the sectoral composition of the UK economy over the last 20 years left it highly vulnerable to the downturn. The nature of the recession means that some of the recent trends will be arrested in the short term, yet it also highlights the need for a restructuring and re-regulation of the economy over the medium term to guard against a recurrence and to ensure sustainable and better-balanced growth. |
| 24 April 2009 | Will quantitative easing pull the UK out of recession? | The Bank of England has announced a shift to a policy of 'quantitative easing' (QE) aimed at directly boosting the money supply and bringing down key borrowing costs in order to counter the recession and the risk of a slide into deflation. QE has already had some impact in terms of reducing key borrowing costs, although the deteriorating fiscal position and the weak state of the banking system are barriers to further gains and the quantity of asset purchases may need to be stepped up yet further to overcome this. We do not expect a rapid recovery in the real economy, despite the introduction of QE, but it should help the UK avoid a damaging slide into deflation which, if allowed, would further deepen the recession. |
| 24 April 2009 | The Economic Outlook for London | Economic conditions in London deteriorated in the second half of 2008, as they did across the UK generally. Labour market indicators showed employment beginning to fall across the region during the summer and unemployment rising sharply at the end of the year, whilst residential and commercial property markets were hit by falling prices and very weak demand. The nature of the recession, with its roots in global financial services, means London will be affected more than other UK regions. Employment is forecast to contract by more than 4% this year, equivalent to almost 200,000 job losses, and unemployment will rise significantly in response. London's economic recovery will be slow to take hold and it will be 2011 before any noticeable expansion in activity and rising employment is likely to be achieved. Thereafter, favourable structural factors should ensure London regains its position among the fastest growing UK regions. |
| 22 April 2009 | UK Budget: Darling fails to provide credible plan for the public finances | Alistair Darling's second budget was a disappointment, with the Chancellor once again failing to come up with a credible plan to restore the public finances to health. Though he has finally produced some more realistic borrowing projections for this year and next, his figures for later years are scarcely credible, relying on very strong economic growth, fiscal drag and exceptionally tight spending restraint to close the deficit by 2017/18. The dire state of the public finances had ensured that any fiscal stimulus would be very small and carefully targeted. The new measures will do little to aid the recovery. |
| 10 March 2009 | Economic impact of legislative reform to reduce audio-visual piracy | Respect for Film, representing the UK audio-visual (AV) sector, has requested that Oxford Economics undertake a quantitative analysis of the financial benefits to the AV industry of suggested additional steps to combat Intellectual Property (IP) theft in the UK. This work also includes the broader effects of such measures on the UK economy.
The report estimates that implementation of these reforms would provide direct gross revenue benefits to the AV sector of £268 million as well as benefits spread throughout the entire UK economy via multiplier effects, creating a total of £614 million in revenues to all industries, £310 million in GDP, 7,900 jobs and £155 million in taxes to government. |
| 1 March 2009 | The economic contribution of ports to the UK economy | •A study on the economic impact of ports for British Ports Association (BPA) and United Kingdom Major Ports Group Limited (UKMPG). |
| 11 February 2009 | Economic Linkages between the UK and the rest of the EU | Oxford Economics has undertaken a study detailing the economic ties between the UK and the rest of the EU, and where possible, quantifying them according to a number of parameters, such as trade, labour force, tourism, FDI, portfolio investments and banking. |
| 28 January 2009 | Will the recession damage UK long-term growth prospects? | Several exceptional factors combined to generate output growth of 2.9% a year over the last economic cycle. However, prospects for the current cycle have been undermined by the descent into deep recession, which has damaged the most successful sectors of the last cycle, reducing the expected contributions of productivity and population growth to potential output growth and meaning that a lower long-run employment rate will be a drag on prospects. Our forecast of potential output growth of just 2.1% a year between 2006H2 and 2018H2 is well below the Treasury's assumption and will have implications for future policy. |
| 24 November 2008 | Pre-Budget Report: £20bn stimulus announced but will Darling be able to pay for it? | The Pre-Budget Report saw the announcement of a £20 billion fiscal stimulus that will be paid for by higher taxes and exceptionally tight spending growth once the economy has recovered. The central plank of the Chancellor's policy is a reduction in the VAT rate from 17.5% to 15% for the next 13 months, starting on 1st December 2008. The Chancellor has slashed his forecasts for the UK economy, while more than doubling his borrowing projections and suggesting that the current budget will not return to balance until 2015/16. However, given the relatively modest planned tax increases, we are sceptical as to the ability of a future government to hit the very tight spending plans required to bring the budget back into balance. |
| 23 October 2008 | The economic contribution of the UK Games Development Industry | This report, prepared by Oxford Economics, provides an evaluation of the economic contribution of the UK Games Development industry. The video games industry value chain is organized around the production and distribution of digital content. Games Developers are the primary creative force in the video games industry, responsible for transforming original and / or licensed IP into games on a variety of platforms (such as TV-based or handheld consoles, PCs and mobile phones). |
| 23 October 2008 | The economic contribution of the UK Games Development Industry | This report, prepared by Oxford Economics, provides an evaluation of the economic contribution of the
UK Games Development industry.
The video games industry value chain is organized around the production and distribution of digital
content. Games Developers are the primary creative force in the video games industry, responsible for
transforming original and / or licensed IP into games on a variety of platforms (such as TV-based or
handheld consoles, PCs and mobile phones). |
| 8 October 2008 | Government unveils scheme to bailout UK banks | An intensification of the banking crisis has led the government to accelerate its planned bailout scheme. The package involves recapitalising the banks, doubling the size of the Special Liquidity Scheme and establishing a government-backed company to guarantee new borrowings for maturities up to three years. The package was in line with expectations and should alleviate funding concerns and support confidence in UK banks. However, the economic outlook does not just depend on banking issues, but on how consumers and companies react to recent events. In six months time, it is possible that the main constraint on growth may no longer be the banks’ ability to lend but rather demand for credit. |
| 9 September 2008 | Economic contribution of the asset, motor and consumer finance industries | A new report launched today by Oxford Economics finds that the asset, motor and consumer finance industries support 167,000 jobs and contribute over £11 billion to UK GDP. They finance 28% of all business capital investment; nearly a third of all purchases of cars and over half of all new car registrations; and 8% of all consumer spending in the UK. The report commissioned by the Finance and Leasing Association (FLA) is the first ever study of the economic importance of its members. |
| 20 July 2008 | Regional winners and losers in UK public finances | Oxford Economics' analysis shows that it is only the wider South East regions (London, the South East and Eastern) that made a positive net contribution to the UK public finances in 2006-07. It is not surprising that the South persistently provides fiscal support to the rest of the UK given the relative strengths of the different regional economies and the broadly redistributive nature of government policies towards taxation and spending, but the scale of this regional fiscal redistribution has been increasing over recent years. Looking forward, a rising UK fiscal deficit is likely to be reflected disproportionately in the South, and in London in particular, given the impact of the credit crunch on financial services, but we still expect the South to make a net positive contribution to the Exchequer. |
| 20 July 2008 | Which parts of Great Britain are vulnerable to the credit crunch? | Oxford Economics have constructed a vulnerability index for GB local authorities, based on the proportion of jobs in sectors most at risk from the credit crunch, spreading from financial services to real estate, other business services, construction and retail and other consumer related industries. Outside central London, a number of smaller centres show up as being vulnerable, including Chester, Bournemouth, Calderdale and Macclesfield. These tend to be relatively prosperous areas with high concentrations of jobs in banking and auxiliary services. Cities are generally more exposed than rural areas but there is a considerable range in level of exposure, with Leeds, Edinburgh and Bristol more exposed than more industrial and public sector-focussed cities, such as Sheffield and Liverpool. |
| 3 June 2008 | Study of the impact of the Intermediate Research & Technology Sector on the UK economy | The independent research and technology sector has an important role in fostering innovation and the exploitation of research and technological change in the UK economy. Its work is vital in helping to raise the productivity of UK companies and in connecting businesses, government and academia to the resources needed for the successful uptake of new technology. A recently released report by Oxford Economics estimates the sector contributes £3 billion to UK GDP, supports over 60,000 jobs and makes a catalytic contribution to UK GDP that runs to many tens of billions of pounds. |
| 20 May 2008 | The Economic Outlook for London | For London, and the central business district in particular, recent downward revisions to forecasts have been more acute than for the UK as a whole due to the concentration of financial services. Over the course of the last few months, headline figures of projected job losses have risen from 10,000 to 50,000, as each new forecast appears more pessimistic than the last. However, partly as a result of the momentum in the UK economy and partly a result of the robust labour market data, Oxford Economics predicts a more modest overall decline than the more bearish forecasts, with net job losses of just over 20,000 in the City of London and Tower Hamlets finance sectors over the next 24 months. Nevertheless, this is a marked downgrade in the short term from recent forecasts, showing a much more pronounced cycle in the London outlook. |
| 2 April 2008 | The Economic Contribution of BAE Systems to the UK | Oxford Economics has released a new study dealing with the economic impact of BAE Systems on the UK economy. The report finds that BAE Systems is a substantial contributor to the UK economy. BAE Systems employs 35,000 people with direct impacts including value added of £2.4 billion, exports of £4.1 billion, and a tax contribution of $500 million. However, when indirect and induced impacts are included, BAE's total economic impact is far greater than this. This work updates the results of past studies conducted in 2005 and 2004. |
| 12 March 2008 | UK Budget 2008: the chancellor’s cupboard proves bare | The Chancellor’s main message in the budget was that slower economic growth will lead to a considerable increase in planned borrowing over the next few years compared to earlier projections. But despite this, fiscal policy will not be making a significant contribution to supporting activity. The budget actually reveals that there is very little room for fiscal policy to help support growth. Public sector borrowing is set to rise significantly in the next few years, and the Chancellor actually had to tighten policy in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 to curb this rise. With the Treasury growth forecasts relatively optimistic, and assumptions very tight on public spending growth, the risks looked skewed towards borrowing overshooting the budget targets, and remaining at uncomfortably high levels into the medium term. |
| 8 January 2008 | UK living standards to overtake the US in 2008 for the first time in over a century | Living standards in the UK as measured by GDP per capita are set to rise above those in the US in 2008 for the first time since the 19th century. UK GDP is expected to reach £23,500 per head of the population in 2008, compared with £23,250 per capita in the US.
Moreover, UK GDP per head will be over 8% higher than in both Germany and France in 2008. |
| 20 December 2007 | Credit crunch weighs on growth and threatens more severe damage | As 2007 draws to a close, financial markets remain volatile and the impact of the credit crunch is increasingly being felt. High levels of interbank rates have had a knock-on effect on lending rates to households and firms, and credit standards have also been tightened by banks, posing a risk to investment and consumption going forward.This has prompted further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and cuts by the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. Central banks have also added further large volumes of liquidity to interbank markets. Asset prices remain under pressure, with weaker house prices posing a particular risk to global growth, but emerging markets continue to show few signs of a growth impact from the recent financial market turmoil. A plausible downside scenario for global growth in 2008-2009 would see significantly below trend growth across the major industrial countries. Over the last month, the odds on this scenario materialising, rather than the baseline, have risen. |
| 5 November 2007 | How hard will the credit crunch hit the economy? | Financial markets have been in turmoil over the summer, as fear of default risk in the US subprime mortgage market has spilled over. Investor fears have been exacerbated by uncertainty about the scale and distribution of losses associated with subprime exposures. The concern is that if the pressure on banks persists, their next step will be to cut back on lending to the household and corporate sectors, creating a ‘credit crunch’. A full-blown credit crunch would have a significant negative impact on growth in the major economies relative to our baseline forecasts. Such an outcome seems some way off at present, but the scale of the downside risk does appear to be having an impact on central bank thinking, and further monetary policy action may well prove necessary to head off growth risks. |
| 22 October 2007 | The Economic Outlook for London | London’s growing strength as the world’s leading financial centre has continued so far in 2007, but nervousness in global finance makes the short-term outlook more uncertain than six months ago. Our latest forecasts continue to depict London among the UK’s fastest-growing regions, but in the short term GVA growth is expected to slide from an estimated 3.9% in 2007 to 2.3% in 2008, and the downside risks have risen. Our forecast of 0.8% employment growth next year would be the first year since 2004 with less than a 1% rise in London’s jobs, and a ‘credit crunch’ scenario could see 50,000 fewer jobs in London than in our central forecast. |
| 11 October 2007 | Why Britain needs a fair deal for the South East | The South East Counties’ 9 million residents pay on average £2,000 more in taxes to the Exchequer than the Government spends per head in the South East. Oxford Economics' analysis of both tax and spending in the South East counties is contained in 'Taken for Granted: Why Britain Needs a Fair Deal for the South East' - a research report by Local Government Futures and Oxford Economics for the South Eastern Counties Leaders which evaluates taxation and expenditure flows between the South East and the Exchequer and compares funding, cost pressures, and public sector demands across the UK. |
| 26 July 2007 | The economic contribution of the UK film industry | The core UK film industry is a substantial industry, directly employing 33,500 people in 2006 and supporting a total of 95,000 jobs, taking into account those working in its supply chain and its contribution to UK tourism, trade and merchandise sales. This report, prepared for the UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton, assesses the different ways in which the film industry generates activity and employment in the UK economy, and the importance of the new Film Tax Relief for the competitiveness of film production in the UK.
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| 23 July 2007 | Where is the risk in global financial markets? | The positive global macroeconomic picture of recent years has led to rapid growth in the supply of and demand for risky assets, at prices which have offered little insurance against even a moderate worsening in financial market conditions. LBO market activity has exceeded its 1980s peak, and a surge in issuance of low-grade corporate debt has increased the risk of a sharp rise in default rates. Problems in the US subprime mortgage market, which could spark a broader sell-off in the structured products sector, pose a threat to the wider economy. The exposed markets have been key drivers of the rapid recent growth of financial sector activity in the US and the UK. Given the importance of the financial sector in the US and the UK, a downturn in these risky markets could have a significant impact on growth. |
| 22 June 2007 | Are current low risk spreads sustainable? | The recent signs of more widespread inflation, rising short-term interest rates and higher bond yields are raising doubts about whether the surge in credit growth seen in recent years is starting to go into reverse. Monetary conditions are clearly getting tighter in most leading economies, and the big question mark is whether recent falls in bond and equity markets are a temporary correction in a still-favourable financial market backdrop or whether it marks the start of a major reversal of the decline seen in credit spreads over the last five years. Emerging markets have been particularly favoured in recent years and emerging market assets may also be vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment to greater risk aversion. But a consequence of improved fundamentals is that there is less risk of contagion, meaning that a generalised emerging market slump and a wholesale widening of risk spreads is much less likely than in the past. |
| 3 May 2007 | Economic outlook for London | London is driving UK economic growth, benefiting from its highly competitive position in the booming global financial and business services sector. While this is leading to increasing pressure on London property prices, commercial rents and the transport infrastructure, our forecasts suggest that the London economy should continue to outpace UK growth over the next five years. |
| 1 May 2007 | A decade of fiscal policy under New Labour | UK Economic Outlook, May 2007 |
| 1 May 2007 | How long can the global M&A boom last? | UK Economic Outlook, May 2007 |
| 1 May 2007 | The economic outlook for London | UK Economic Outlook, May 2007 |
| 22 March 2007 | UK Budget 2007: A Budget of Grand Gestures and Little Impact | This was a Budget of grand gestures but with little economic impact. What the Chancellor gave away with one hand – to great political effect – he took back with the other. As a result, the Budget does nothing to change the economic outlook. Worryingly, despite the strong performance of the economy, the outlook for the public finances has deteriorated yet again, with the Treasury projecting a current budget position £3-5 billion a year worse than in the Budget a year ago. And we doubt that even these new forecasts will be achievable as the next election increases pressure for more spending on health and education, and as the Treasury struggles to hold down public sector pay. |
| 12 March 2007 | Mental Health and the UK Economy | A substantial number of people in the UK suffer from a mental health illness with around one million people claiming incapacity benefit due to mental and behavioural disorders and over ten million working days lost due to stress, depression and anxiety. There are substantial benefits to both the economy and the Exchequer from helping people either gain or retain a job or miss fewer working days. Our estimates suggest that mental health costs the economy over £10 billion a year and the Exchequer more than £6 billion. Our econometric analysis, and results from existing research, suggests that it is likely that many schemes aimed at helping people with mental health illnesses have been, or could be, of net value to both the economy and Exchequer. However, given the range of conditions that can be described as a mental health related illness, ranging from anxiety to schizophrenia, the cost and potential benefits of supporting someone in work, or helping them return to work, will vary enormously. |
| 8 March 2007 | UK Regional Economic Outlook | Recent data shows the London and surrounding economies entering 2007 in a position of strength while casting some doubt over the strength of the northern economies and the North West in particular. The extent to which the UK's recent and prospective growth have been fuelled by the success of internationally competitive financial and business services suggests the northern regions face a challenge to overcome this. |
| 19 February 2007 | Regional contributions to UK public finances | Research by Oxford Economics shows that the south east corner of the UK is funding the rest of the country to a dramatic extent. In 2004/05 tax payers in London, South East and Eastern England contributed in net terms more than a £1,000 per head of population to the nations coffers whilst the rest of the country in varying degrees is a drain on Whitehall. When you subtract public spending from taxes raised Londoners each paid over on average more than £1,700 to the Treasury whilst their counterparts in Northern Ireland were subsidised to the tune of over £3,700 per head and their equivalents in the North East of England on average benefited by more than £2,500. |
| 2 February 2007 | UK Economic Outlook: January 2007 | In our latest UK Economic Outlook, we are forecasting economic growth to remain robust in 2007 at 2.7%. However, as inflation draws closer to “letter-writing territory”, with stronger growth supporting building inflationary pressures, it seems likely that the MPC will vote once more to raise rates, to 5.5%. But that rise should be reversed later in the year as inflationary pressures subside, thanks to both lower world energy prices and the dampening impact of higher interest rates on domestic demand. Our forecast shows inflation falling back to the 2% target in the second half of 2007, and a slowdown in consumer and investment spending leading to weaker GDP growth of 2.5% in 2008. |
| 16 January 2007 | Is UK manufacturing in terminal decline? | UK Economic Outlook, January 2007 |
| 1 December 2006 | Contribution of aviation to the UK economy | Aviation is a substantial UK industry in its own right. But its key contribution to the UK economy is in helping other sectors to operate more efficiently and to compete in the global economy, supporting productivity and economic growth across UK plc as a whole. This report updates our 1999 study on the economic contribution of the aviation industry in the UK, and extends the analysis in a number of ways. |
| 11 November 2006 | London's Place in the UK Economy | Londoners made a net contribution of £13.1 billion to UK public finances in 2004-5, almost a billion more than in the previous year. Our new report for the City of London Corporation on London’s Place in the UK Economy, 2006-7 shows how London’s positive contribution was underpinned by a strong economic performance, itself supported to a considerable extent by the financial services industry centred in the City, and by continued population growth, deriving largely from strong international migration to the capital.
While the outlook is positive for London’s economic future, London’s success in meeting the challenges of rising population and employment cannot be taken for granted, and could be undermined by potential structural constraints, notably in transport, housing and utilities. |
| 1 November 2006 | UK Feature Article: | The economic impact of
international migration within
the UK economy |
| 1 November 2006 | UK Feature Article: | Housing wealth and UK
consumption |
| 1 November 2006 | UK Feature Article: | The economic outlook for London |
| 11 October 2006 | Prospects for the UK Financial services sector | A special report by OEF for the Financial Services Skills Council |
| 28 August 2006 | Prospects for the UK financial services sector | The last five years have seen rapid growth in the output of the financial services sector, But while there has been strong growth in employment in broking and fund management, other parts of financial services have seen subdued job creation, reflecting pressure for firms to improve productivity and reduce costs in an increasingly competitive market. This report prepared for the Financial Services Skills Council assesses in detail the factors that will iunfluence the development of the sector over the next five years. |
| 1 August 2006 | UK Housing Market: The impact of House Information Packs | UK Economic Outlook, July 2006 |
| 1 August 2006 | European Industry: Facing up top the emerging market competitiveness challenge | UK Economic Outlook, July 2006 |
| 16 June 2006 | UK & Emerging Markets Outlook Conference, London Thursday 15th June 2006: | Presentations available to download here |
| 27 April 2006 | The economic outlook for London | UK Economic Outlook, April 2006 |
| 27 April 2006 | Bubble trouble- are house prices significantly overvalued? | UK Economic Outlook, April 2006 |
| 27 April 2006 | Is there a global bonds bubble- what if it bursts? | UK Economic Outlook, April 2006 |
| 24 March 2006 | What is the impact of EU expansion on labour markets? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2006 |
| 23 March 2006 | OEF's Assessment of the 2006 UK Budget: | OEF's review of the 2006 Budget |
| 15 February 2006 | The Economic Contribution of BMW Group in the UK | A special report by OEF for BMW Group |
| 1 November 2005 | London's place in the UK Economy 2005-06 | A special report by OEF for the Corporation of London |
| 21 October 2005 | Trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU: | A report by OEF for Open Europe |
| 19 October 2005 | Economic Policies for Growth and Employment: | UK Economic Outlook, October 2005 |
| 19 October 2005 | The Economic Outlook for London | UK Economic Outlook, October 2005 |
| 23 September 2005 | OEF UK Sectoral & Regional Conference, Oxford 22nd September 2005: | Presentations available to download |
| 20 September 2005 | The Economic Contribution of the UK Film Industry: | A special report by OEF for the UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton plc |
| 19 July 2005 | Does Italy's plight threaten European monetary union? | UK Economic Outlook, July 2005 |
| 19 July 2005 | Migration within England & Wales and the housing market | UK Economic Outlook, July 2005 |
| 26 April 2005 | The changing structure of the UK economy- Implications for the current account | UK Economic Outlook, April 2005 |
| 26 April 2005 | The economic outlook for London | UK Economic Outlook, April 2005 |
| 4 February 2005 | UK Household Debt: A threat to growth or stability? | UK Economic Outlook, January 2005 |
| 4 February 2005 | Local housing markets and segregation in England | UK Economic Outlook, January 2005 |
| 20 October 2004 | China and the UK economy | UK Economic Outlook, October 2004 |
| 19 July 2004 | How tight is the UK labour market? | Economic Outlook, July 2004 |
| 26 April 2004 | Offshoring: How big an issue? | UK Economic Outlook, April 2004 |
| 11 February 2004 | The Economic Contribution of BAE Systems to the UK, and Implications for Defence Procurement Strategy | A special report by OEF for BAE Systems |
| 22 January 2004 | The impact of interest rates and the housing market on the UK economy | UK Economic Outlook, January 2004 |
| 21 October 2003 | What is the chance of a Yuan revaluation? | UK Economic Outlook, October 2003 |
| 28 July 2003 | The Economic Effects of Transport Delays on the City of London: | A special report produced by OEF for the Corporation of London |
| 28 July 2003 | The changing sources of new mortgage debt | UK Economic Outlook, July 2003 |
| 28 July 2003 | Housing, credit and the euro: the policy response | UK Economic Outlook, July 2003 |
| 23 April 2003 | The housing market and the monetary transmission mechanism in the UK, in and out of EMU | UK Economic Outlook, April 2003 |
| 22 April 2003 | UK Budget 2003 – Will taxes have to rise? | UK Economic Outlook, April 2003 |
| 23 January 2003 | Can House Prices Remain So High? | UK Economic Outlook, January 2003 |
| 22 January 2003 | The UK and EMU: Lessons from Europe | UK Economic Outlook, January 2003 |
| 22 January 2003 | War in Iraq: implications for the UK economy | UK Economic Outlook, January 2003 |
| 28 October 2002 | The economic impact of military action against Iraq: | How would a new Gulf War affect the world economy? |
| 22 October 2002 | Germany - the next Japan? | UK Economic Outlook, October 2002 |
| 22 October 2002 | Is deflation a real risk for the UK? | UK Economic Outlook, October 2002 |
| 29 July 2002 | A tale of two bubbles: | The impact of falling equity prices/booming house prices on the UK economy |
| 25 July 2002 | What are the implications of a weaker dollar? | UK Economic Outlook, July 2002 |
| 23 July 2002 | The impact of shocks on the UK economy in and out of EMU | UK Economic Outlook, July 2002 |
| 4 July 2002 | Aviation and the UK Economy | Special report produced for DETR and a consortium of airports and airlines |
| 28 June 2002 | The economic impact of express carriers for UK plc: | A special report for the European Express Association |
| 24 April 2002 | Mortgage Credit Conditions in the UK | UK Economic Outlook, April 2002 |
| 18 April 2002 | Budget phone conference: | Presentation charts |
| 17 April 2002 | UK Budget 2002: | Big tax and spending increases but little macreconomic impact |
| 17 January 2002 | Exchange Rate and Foreign Price Effects on UK Inflation | UK Economic Outlook, January 2002 |
| 17 January 2002 | Japan: Is There Any Way Out? | UK Ecomomic Outlook, January 2002 |
| 6 November 2001 | UK recessions - anatomy, causes and risks: | Detailed analysis of past UK recessions and assessment of the risk of recession in 2002 |
| 18 October 2001 | Is the UK heading for recession? | UK Economic Outlook, October 2001 |
| 18 October 2001 | Prospects for the Euro: Why has it been so weak? | UK Economic Outlook, October 2001 |
| 23 July 2001 | Shades of the late 1980s? | UK Economic Outlook, July 2001 |
| 20 July 2001 | Is the housing market set to fall? | UK Economic Outlook, July 2001 |
| 15 June 2001 | What difference would EMU entry make to the UK? | Scenario study bt OEF |
| 20 April 2001 | I. The economic impacts of reducing the inflation target and II. The foot-and-mouth crisis and III. The implications of falling equity prices | UK Economic Outlook, April 2001 |
| 20 April 2001 | Fiscal policy in the UK | UK Economic Outlook, April 2001 |
| 20 January 2001 | Equity markets and the economy | UK Economic Outlook, January 2001 |
| 20 January 2001 | What is the impact of a US hard landing? | UK Economic Outlook, January 2001 |
| 20 October 2000 | The impact of the rise in oil prices on the UK economy | UK Economic Outlook, October 2000 |
| 17 October 2000 | Sterling and the Euro | UK Economic Outlook, October 2000 |
| 22 August 2000 | OEF regional analysis: | Is the North-South divide widening? |
| 17 July 2000 | Why Do Mortgage Markets Matter? | UK Economic Outlook, July 2000 |
| 17 July 2000 | Russia: Collapse and Recovery | UK Economic Outlook, July 2000 |
| 17 July 2000 | Learning Organisations, Lifelong Learning and the Mystery of the Vanishing Employers | UK Economic Outlook, July 2000 |
| 12 July 2000 | Re-balancing the economy: alternative approaches to economic policy | A report by OEF for a group of organisations representing traded sectors. |
| 18 April 2000 | Expenditure on the NHS in Perspective | UK Economic Outlook, April 2000 |
| 18 April 2000 | Reviewing Bank of England Independence: The Report of the Bank of England Commission | UK Economic Outlook, April 2000 |
| 18 April 2000 | Liberalisation of Utilities and Evolving European Regulation | UK Economic Outlook, April 2000 |
| 5 April 2000 | What is the impact of call centres on UK regional development? | A presentation by NEIRC |
| 18 January 2000 | The Independence of the Bank Of England: an update | UK Economic Outlook, January 2000 |
| 18 January 2000 | Prudence and Pragmatism in the Fiscal Stance | UK Economic Outlook, January 2000 |
| 16 July 1999 | Evaluating the Monetary Policy Committee | UK Economic Outlook, July 1999 |
| 16 July 1999 | A New Paradigm? Understanding the evolving UK macroeconomics profession | UK Economic Outlook, July 1999 |
| 16 July 1999 | Many Models at the Bank of England | UK Economic Outlook, July 1999 |
