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International Macroeconomics

US Weekly Economic Briefings Archive

30 August 2010Oxford Economics’ study of the Eurozone fiscal crisis
23 August 2010Expect a sharp downward revision to the 2010Q2 national accounts
16 August 2010The recovery has slowed, but is expected to pick up again soon
9 August 2010Another weak labor market report
2 August 2010The recession was deeper than previously thought
26 July 2010Will the Bush tax cuts be allowed to expire?
19 July 2010Temporary factors affect growth, but the underlying trend is moderately positive
12 July 2010The personal saving rate has risen, a change that may persist
5 July 2010The European sovereign debt crisis poses risks to the US economy
28 June 2010Oil price outlook to 2030
21 June 2010The outlook for global industry
14 June 2010 Recent indicators suggest strength, but there is also cause for concern
7 June 2010Temporary census jobs will continue to skew labor market data
31 May 2010Unemployment claims sound a note of caution
24 May 2010Deflation risk is still present, but low
17 May 2010Economic prospects brighten, but risks remain
10 May 2010The labor market turns a corner
3 May 2010A moderate recovery so far
26 April 2010The recovery in household net worth slowed in 2009Q4
19 April 2010Reform of financial market regulation comes to the fore
12 April 2010Despite a rebound in manufacturing, growth will be moderate
5 April 2010Housing recovery remains elusive
29 March 2010What is the monetary data really telling us?
22 March 2010Health care reform, if enacted, could have a significant impact on the economy
15 March 2010Economic signals remain mixed, but moderat growth is expected in 2010
8 March 2010-36,000, +308,000 -- why don't the employment surveys agree?
1 March 2010The new credit card law takes effect, altering conditions for users and issuers
22 February 2010The Fed raises the discount rate, one step in retracting extraordinary measures
15 February 2010The surge in Q4 will give way to slower growth
8 February 2010Banking regulation - are we on the right track?
1 February 2010Recovery lags previous cycles
25 January 2010Massachusetts election shock is likely to constrain the Obama economic agenda
18 January 2010An upward revision to the near-term forecast, but the economy still faces headwinds
11 January 2010A disappointing report on the labor market
21 December 2009Household net worth continues to recover, but still has a long way to go
14 December 2009Recovery is underway but will remain moderate
7 December 2009A big upside surprise from the labor market
30 November 2009The crisis, unemployment and productivity – the US versus the Eurozone
23 November 2009The outlook for global construction
16 November 2009The recession is over but the recovery is likely to be slow
9 November 2009Another small dose of stimulus
2 November 2009Fiscal stimulus impact is apparent in swings in economic data
26 October 2009Has the deflation risk diminished?
19 October 2009The recovery in global capital flows
12 October 2009Despite a temporary boost from car sales, the fundamentals remain mixed
5 October 2009Little encouragement from the labor market
28 September 2009The Fed begins to turn off the tap
21 September 2009Households recover a small portion of wealth lost during the recession
14 September 2009An upturn is in sight but growth will be restrained
7 September 2009Federal red ink will remain deep
31 August 2009Global economy emerges from recession, could this lead to a renewed spike in oil prices?
24 August 2009Consumers remain under pressure
17 August 2009The recession may be over, but the recovery will be slow
10 August 2009The benchmark revision to the national accounts
3 August 2009Re-balancing the current account
27 July 2009Where does the €/$ exchange rate go from here?
20 July 2009A bad time to raise the minimum wage
13 July 2009Is the recession almost over?
6 July 2009The state of the states
29 June 2009Why is the US foreclosure rate so high?
22 June 2009A new era for financial regulation
15 June 2009Could swine flu tip the world into deflation?
8 June 2009Despite the unexpectedly moderate decline in May payrolls, the labor market remains weak
1 June 2009Personal saving - the new order of the day?
26 May 2009Could the US be in danger of losing its triple-A bond rating?
18 May 2009Bank stress tests - are they stressful enough in the US, and what about Europe?
11 May 2009Are initial unemployment claims signalling an end to the recession?
4 May 2009Slump in global wealth to hinder global recovery prospects?
27 April 2009Global financial system losses soar again - more bailouts on the way?
20 April 2009Deflation risk remains low
13 April 2009The economic storm clouds lift a little, but recovery is still some way off
6 April 2009No turnaround for housing yet
30 March 2009How far away is a global recovery?
23 March 2009What now for unemployment?
16 March 2009Despite the rise in retail sales,spending will remain under pressure
9 March 2009The economic gloom intensifies
2 March 2009Obama's first budget changes priorities
23 February 2009A new mortgage foreclosure prevention plan - will this one work?
16 February 2009Credit tightening continues in the Eurozone - but first signs of improvement in the US?
9 February 2009The economy will worsen before improving
2 February 2009The Q4 inventory surprise
26 January 2009State and local government weighs on the economy
18 January 2009The stimulus package takes shape
12 January 2009The recession intensifies
22 December 2008The Fed cuts its target rate to near zero
15 December 2008Accelerating job losses point to a deeper recession
8 December 2008WIth interest rate targeting limited, the Fed turns to quantitative easing
1 December 2008Deflation risk is low, but the threat is real
24 November 2008Repatriation flows boost the dollar, but will it last?
17 November 2008The party is over for consumers
10 November 2008Deteriorating conditions have worsened prospects for the economy
3 November 2008The election has important economic implications
27 October 2008Q&A: The financial crisis
20 October 2008The Good, The Bad, And The Equities
13 October 2008The financial crisis rages on
6 October 2008The rescue package won't keep the economy out of recession
29 September 2008Financial fallout cuts growth prospects
22 September 2008Financial turmoil intensifies; broader solutions are sought
15 September 2008Will the takeover of Freddie and Fannie boost US growth or undermine its creditworthiness?
8 September 2008Increasing headwinds will constrain growth
1 September 2008A positive report on households may overstate the actual improvement
25 August 2008Are credit conditions still deteriorating?
18 August 2008Headline inflation may have peaked, but there is still cause for concern
11 August 2008The economy continues to sputter, but a collapse remains unlikely
4 August 2008GDP edged lower in 2007Q4. Was that the start of a recession?
28 July 2008The housing rescue bill will soon be law
21 July 2008A new round of financial distress
14 July 2008With consumers under pressure, prospects for 2008H2 dim
4 July 2008The impact of the federal tax rebates
30 June 2008The Fed holds rates steady, but leans slightly in the direction of tighter policy
20 June 2008Why are LIBOR rates still so high?
16 June 2008Economic policies in the next Administration
9 June 2008Oil prices threaten growth
2 June 2008Chances of avoiding a recession improve
26 May 2008House prices continue to fall, pressured by inventory overhang
19 May 2008Food prices add to pressure on consumers
12 May 2008Has the recession disappeared?
5 May 2008The Fed takes a new stance
28 April 2008Gasoline prices weigh on consumers
18 April 2008Is this the first global property crisis?
14 April 2008Federal action on underwater mortgages
7 April 2008Recession signals from the labor market
31 March 2008How much more do house prices have to fall?
24 March 2008Despite steps taken in support of financial markets, more may be needed
14 March 2008GDP will probably fall in Q1, but is still expected to rebound in the second half
10 March 2008Consumer fundamentals weaken
3 March 2008Will trade continue to support the economy?
25 February 2008Is stagflation making a comeback?
15 February 2008The Bush Administration’s last budget
11 February 2008Near-term weakness, but the second half should see an improvement
4 February 2008Fewer Americans had jobs last year than previously thought
28 January 2008The Fed's surprise cut
21 January 2008A fiscal stimulus package is in the works
14 January 2008The economy is weak but still expected to avoid a recession
7 January 2008How weak is the labor market?
24 December 2007Consumers to the rescue?
17 December 2007Impact of central banks' coordinated action is uncertain
10 December 2007The outlook darkens
3 December 2007The Fed takes steps to be better understood
26 November 2007Is the dollar set to fall further?
19 November 2007Strength in Q3 will give way to slower growth
12 November 2007Oil prices climb, again
5 November 2007The Fed cuts, but discourages expectations of further cuts
29 October 2007The housing gloom intensifies
21 October 2007Could housing market woes sway the Fed towards a rate cut?
15 October 2007Income inequality is widening
8 October 2007Recession fears fade but risks remain
1 October 2007The GM-UAW settlement may have widespread impacts
24 September 2007The Fed cuts aggressively to forestall growth risks
17 September 2007A closer look at labor market conditions
10 September 2007Financial market turmoil may be starting to take an economic toll
2 September 2007No bailouts, but some action is in sight
24 August 2007Will the Fed step in to fight liquidity crunch?
20 August 2007Is this the beginning of a credit crunch?
13 August 2007Inflation is still the Fed's chief concern, but downside risks have risen
6 August 2007A downward shift to the forecast
30 July 2007Revisions cut into recent GDP growth
23 July 2007Will owners' equivalent rent keep pushing down core inflation?
16 July 2007Shouldn't food and energy prices be counted, too?
9 July 2007A rebound in Q2, followed by moderate growth
2 July 2007Inflation is still the Fed's chief concern
25 June 2007Subprime mortgage market remains under pressure
18 June 2007Bond yields surge
11 June 2007Even slower growth in 2007Q1 sets the stage for a rebound in Q2
4 June 2007Revenues outpace outlays, but long-term budget prospects remain poor
28 May 2007After 10 years, the minimum wage will rise
21 May 2007Gasoline prices soar again
14 May 2007The economy slowed in Q1
6 May 2007Productivity and unit labor costs slow
30 April 2007The trust funds gain a year
23 April 2007Is the labor market weakening?
16 April 2007Will the ethanol boom fuel inflation?
9 April 2007The orders data signal weak investment, but growth is still expected to pick up
2 April 2007US households are still in good financial shape
26 March 2007A small step toward neutral
19 March 2007The deterioration in the sub-prime mortgage market will be contained
12 March 2007Sub-par growth with rising downside risks
5 March 2007The equity market stumbles
26 February 2007Q4 growth - set for a trimming
19 February 2007Bernanke reaffirms the Fed's resolve on inflation
12 February 2007Strength in Q4 will give way to slower growth
5 February 2007More Americans had jobs last year than previously thought
29 January 2007Lame duck agenda - big ideas unlikely to go far
22 January 2007Bernanke puts the spotlight on the deficit
15 January 2007Oil price plunge may boost growth
8 January 2007The indicators turn positive
18 December 2006The Fed remains on hold
11 December 2006Despite signs of further slowing, the economy remains on track
4 December 2006Are home prices falling?
27 November 2006Holiday shopping -- off to a good start?
18 November 2006Has the inflation threat subsided?
12 November 2006Homebuilding constrained growth 2006Q3 but a pickup is in the works
6 November 2006Would a Democratic Congress raise taxes?
30 October 2006The Fed holds again
23 October 2006The US population hits 300 million
16 October 2006Payrolls are to be revised sharply higher
9 October 2006The slowdown broadens in 2006Q3
2 October 2006A new treatment for R&D spending
25 September 2006US rates on hold amid concerns about inflation
18 September 2006Gasoline prices drop, benefiting consumers
11 September 2006Housing falters but is unlikely to push the economy into recession
4 September 2006After four annual declines, median income rises
28 August 2006The newsflow vindicates the Fed’s ‘pause’ decision
21 August 2006What does yield curve inversion signify?
21 August 2006What does yield curve inversion signify?
14 August 2006The Fed pauses
7 August 2006The slowdown extends into the second half
31 July 2006The economy has been weaker than previously thought
24 July 2006The Fed's next move becomes less clear
17 July 2006The Administration revises its deficit projections for the better
10 July 2006The Q2 slowdown comes into focus
3 July 2006Still not done tightening
23 June 2006Is it time to raise the minimum wage ?
19 June 2006Homeowners' equivalent rent drives the core CPI
12 June 2006The economy is expected to slow moderately
5 June 2006With the Fed now data dependent, how are the data stacking up?
29 May 2006Are US consumers becoming more restrained?
22 May 2006The dollar falls again
12 May 2006The Fed seeks to broaden its options
8 May 2006Poised for a slowdown
1 May 2006The labor force participation rate has yet to recover
24 April 2006Gasoline prices are climbing again
17 April 2006Long-term yields surpass the 5% mark
10 April 2006Q1 is still looking very strong, but the risks for the rest of the forecast are to the downside
3 April 2006Fifteen rate hikes and still not done
27 March 2006Living standards aren't rising for everyone
20 March 2006Congress adds to spending, even as it is forced to increase the debt limit
13 March 2006The weather adds to forecast uncertainty, but we continue to expect moderate growth after a strong Q1
6 March 2006The housing sector has topped out
27 February 2006Average gains in income and net worth have slowed sharply
20 February 2006Mr Bernanke makes his first Congressional appearance as Fed Chairman
13 February 2006Deficits to continue; the return of the thirty-year bond
6 February 2006Clearing the deck for Mr Bernanke
30 January 2006The deficit picture improves, or does it?
23 January 2006How dependent is US growth on continued mortgage refinancing?
16 January 2006Growth to remain near trend in 2006
9 January 2006The yield curve inverts
19 December 2005A change in the language but not in the forecast
12 December 2005The economy looks solid, though the pace should slow
5 December 2005Rebounds from temporary factors have further to go
28 November 2005The start of the holiday shopping season
21 November 2005Is the housing sector finally topping out?
14 November 2005Q3 was strong despite the hurricanes, but consumers present a key risk
7 November 2005Interest rates are going up
31 October 2005Bernanke to follow Greenspan at the Fed
24 October 2005The tax-reform panel unveils its proposals
17 October 2005Bankruptcy filings soar as a deadline approaches
10 October 2005Katrina clouds the picture, but it's still mostly positive
3 October 2005A distress signal from consumers
26 September 2005Monetary policy reconsidered in Katrina's wake
19 September 2005Fiscal policy reconsidered in Katrina's wake
12 September 2005Katrina update
5 September 2005Katrina's economic impact could be extraordinary
29 August 2005With debt up and saving nonexistent, will consumers cut back?
22 August 2005The budget outlook: good news for the near term, bad news further out
15 August 2005Will the extension of daylight saving time help or hurt?
8 August 2005A mild slowdown in Q2, but the second half is looking stronger
1 August 2005Heading into recess, Congress wraps up the energy and highway bills
25 July 2005The Chinese revaluation against the dollar - a first step
18 July 2005The Administration takes credit for the improved budget outlook
11 July 2005Improving conditions, but problems remain
4 July 2005Is foreign accumulation of US debt unsustainable?
27 June 2005Could a burst housing bubble derail the economy?
20 June 2005Good news on the federal deficit (for a change)
13 June 2005The weak patch is passed, but growth will be moderate
6 June 2005Whither the long bond rate?
30 May 2005Is Social Security reform possible?
23 May 2005Why are real wages falling?
16 May 2005The trade deficit improves, but remains an issue for the economy
9 May 2005Another rate hike, but the end is still not in sight
2 May 2005Congress passes a budget
25 April 2005Do recent weak indicators signal an economic slide?
18 April 2005The new bankruptcy law is unlikely to change consumer behavior
11 April 2005Despite disquieting signals, the economy has a lot going for it
4 April 2005How tight is the labor market?
28 March 2005Short rates rise again: more to come
21 March 2005Bond prices start to fall
11 March 2005Shifting Shares of GDP
7 March 2005Solid growth looks set to continue
28 February 2005The inflation outlook remains benign, but there are concerns
21 February 2005The Fed Chairman reports to Congress
14 February 2005The fiscal 2006 budget
7 February 2005Statistical quirks in the Q4 national accounts
31 January 2005The budget outlook remains grim
24 January 2005Is there a Social Security crisis?
17 January 2005The falling dollar has not helped the trade balance
10 January 2005Taking stock at the start of the New Year
20 December 2004A summit to launch Mr Bush's economic agenda
13 December 2004Some signs of caution, but moderate growth should continue
6 December 2004Holiday shopping is off to a slow start
29 November 2004A modicum of fiscal restraint
22 November 2004Rising core inflation keeps upward pressure on interest rates
15 November 2004The labor market brightens, just in time
8 November 2004The economic impact of the election, after the fact
1 November 2004The economic impact of the election
25 October 2004Households are in good financial shape, says the Fed Chairman
18 October 2004Congress adjourns to campaign, sending a huge tax bill to the President but leaving much work unfinished
11 October 2004The economy looks solid, but there are concerns
1 October 2004What could happen if we do nothing about the deficits?
27 September 2004The hurricanes' impact
20 September 2004A new survey of the services sector
13 September 2004Latest budget projections provide mixed news
6 September 2004Fiscal policy for the next four years
30 August 2004Poverty and uninsured rates rise, posing a challenge for Bush
23 August 2004High oil prices threaten the expansion
16 August 2004And when next?
9 August 2004Weaker than expected growth in Q2 may extend into Q3
2 August 2004The news on the federal deficit is good or bad, depending on your point of view
26 July 2004More unfinished business
19 July 2004Inflation numbers comfort, but there is still cause for concern
12 July 2004Despite some signs of slowing, growth will remain quite strong
5 July 2004The first of many steps
28 June 2004Consumers can probably handle debt loads, even as rates rise
21 June 2004In a political year, a budget agreement is elusive
14 June 2004Officially, offshoring had a minor impact in Q1
7 June 2004The labor market is on a roll
31 May 2004The coming monetary tightening
24 May 2004Recovery in manufacturing -- is it for real this time?
17 May 2004Worries over oil may be over-done
10 May 2004Solid growth will continue
3 May 2004More on inflation
26 April 2004Fed Chairman Greenspan is not worried about inflation, but rates will go up anyway
19 April 2004Strength in retail sales and a whiff of inflation boost bond rates
12 April 2004Two measures of employment, revisited
5 April 2004Above trend growth will continue
29 March 2004Corporate profits take off
22 March 2004Gasoline prices are on the rise
15 March 2004Household net wealth hits a new record - or does it?
8 March 2004Still no jobs, despite the economy's strength
1 March 2004Mr Greenspan stirs things up
23 February 2004Is off-shoring good for the US economy?
16 February 2004Will the labor market come through?
9 February 2004The new budget has little to do with reality
2 February 2004More red ink
26 January 2004A year without a tax cut?
19 January 2004A recovery in household wealth
12 January 2004The employment report sounds a sour note
5 January 2004Mad cow disease comes to the US
22 December 2003Core inflation continues to fall
15 December 2003The national accounts revisions
8 December 2003The economy moves into high gear
1 December 2003Congress deals the President one victory and one setback
24 November 2003Talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas fall short
17 November 2003The upcoming national accounts revisions
10 November 2003Robust growth should continue through early 2004
3 November 2003Has the Fed tied its hands?
27 October 2003New measures of household debt service
20 October 2003Are consumers running out of steam?
13 October 2003A new governor for California
6 October 2003Two measures of employment
29 September 2003Steel tariffs come up for review
22 September 2003A hurricane is like a blackout
15 September 2003Refinancing boom has reduced households' financial cushion
8 September 2003The decline in payrolls accelerates
25 August 2003A strong second half, but then what?
18 August 2003The blackout is like a blizzard
11 August 2003The second-half pickup appears to be on track
4 August 2003The refinancing boom comes to an end
28 July 2003It's official -- the recession is over
21 July 2003Bond yields bounce back
14 July 2003The recovery: jobless so far
7 July 2003Still looking for the upturn
30 June 2003Low interest rates ease households' debt burden
23 June 2003The Fed's next move
16 June 2003A Medicare prescription drug benefit now appears likely
9 June 2003Household debt continues to climb
2 June 2003The May data are critical to the outlook
26 May 2003The tax package of 2003
19 May 2003Personal bankruptcy is still on the rise
12 May 2003Deflation seems a remote possibility
5 May 2003Other measures show more labor market stress
28 April 2003Despite weak GDP there is reason for optimism
21 April 2003A first look at dynamic analysis
14 April 2003A postwar bounce, but probably not right away
7 April 2003The economic indicators turn south
31 March 2003A change in labor market regulation
24 March 2003Social Security projections improve by Medicare's deteriorate
17 March 2003Another look at budget projections
10 March 2003War jitters take a toll
3 March 2003Energy prices take off
24 February 2003The weaker US dollar
17 February 2003Would new tax-free accounts spur saving?
10 February 2003The 2004 budget
3 February 2003Budget outlook worsens, even before tax cuts or new spending are considered
2 February 2003More red ink
27 January 2003Equity price swings still primarily impact the wealthy
20 January 2003Inflation is not uniformly low
13 January 2003The Bush jobs and growth plan
6 January 2003Is capital spending about to turn?
16 December 2002Consumer debt - high but managable
9 December 2002Past the weak patch?
2 December 2002Holiday shopping appears to be off to a good start
25 November 2002Which employment measure is correct?
18 November 2002Bankruptcy reform is probably dead for this year
11 November 2002Republicans win the Senate
4 November 2002The economic indicators turn sour
28 October 2002Continuing problems on the docks
21 October 2002A turn in the financial markets
14 October 2002West Coast ports are open, at least for now
7 October 2002The dock shutdown casts another shadow over the economy
30 September 2002How likely is a rate cut in the next few months?
23 September 2002State and local government budgets are under pressure
16 September 2002Budget deadline approaches, unheeded
9 September 2002The consumer remains the key to growth…
2 September 200210 year budget projections are cut again
26 August 2002Bond prices rise as economic concerns mount
19 August 2002Can consumers continue to keep it up?
12 August 2002Productivity is revised down
5 August 2002The statistics turn south
29 July 2002The labor market is looking up
22 July 2002Manufacturing on the mend
15 July 2002Equity prices drop again
8 July 2002Corporate malfeasance could take an economic toll
1 July 2002A weaker US Dollar
24 June 2002Stockmarket falls continue, but need not threaten consumption.
17 June 2002Could the US be headed for a double dip?
10 June 2002Revisions cut a half million from payrolls
3 June 2002E-tailing has a long way to go
27 May 2002The budget outlook worsens
20 May 2002Bumping up against the debt ceiling
13 May 2002Movement on fast track trade authority
6 May 2002Politics leads to strange policy
29 April 20022001 may have been worse than it appears
22 April 2002Interest rates are on the increase
15 April 2002Oil price spike is unlikely to derail the recovery
8 April 2002Even stronger first half, despite some disappointing news
1 April 2002Profits point both ways
25 March 2002Energy prices take off again
18 March 2002Manufacturing turns the corner
11 March 2002Economic stimulus puts budget projections back into deficit
4 March 2002Will business investment boost the economy in 2002?
25 February 2002An upward revision to Q4 appears likely
18 February 2002Is consumer debt getting too heavy?
11 February 2002Bush's budget plan
4 February 2002Shallow recession suggests a shallow recovery
28 January 2002Budget projections are cut sharply
21 January 2002Falling prices do not indicate deflation
14 January 2002Stockbuilding may provide some bounce in 2002
7 January 2002Signs of recovery
17 December 2001Social Security - deciding not to decide
10 December 2001Prospects dim for a stimulus package
3 December 2001It's official - it's a recession
19 November 2001A comparison of this cycle with the last one
12 November 2001What happened to the fiscal stimulus
5 November 2001Which way is the consumer headed?
29 October 2001Profits under pressure
22 October 2001Consumer debt burden
15 October 2001The stock market bounce
8 October 2001Has monetary policy lost its effectiveness?
1 October 2001Uncertainty is still the order of the day
24 September 2001More questions than answers
17 September 2001
10 September 2001Unemployment surges
3 September 2001The mood darkens
28 August 2001The Fed cuts again
20 August 2001Could Q2 have been negative?
13 August 2001Social Security trust fund - time for reform
6 August 2001Can consumers keep it up?
30 July 20012001Q2 -- the trough?
23 July 2001Inflation is unlikely to get in the Fed's way
17 July 2001The shrinking federal budget
10 July 2001Is the manufacturing sector nearing the bottom?
3 July 2001Is 275 basis points off interest rates enough to revive US growth?
11 February 2001Bush's budget plan

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