UK Economy
Oxford Economics provides detailed analysis and briefings on UK economic developments and prospects at a macro, sectoral and regional level. This wealth of economic intelligence underpins our advice to clients as a basis for their investment, marketing and policy decisions.
Our UK services include:
- Forecasts for a wealth of macro, sectoral and regional forecasts for up to 10 years ahead
- Monthly forecast updates for macro indicators
- Regular outlook conferences
- Reports setting out clearly the key drivers of UK economic performance and highlighting the issues facing different sectors and regions
- Scenario analysis illustrating the implications of the major risks to the UK economy and their implications
- Telephone and email support from our team of economists
In addition, we can provide consultancy advice on a wide range of macro, sectoral and regional issues, including providing outsourced economics support to senior management; economic impact assessments and investment appraisals; and detailed work on the housing, energy, and travel and tourism sectors.
Forecast reports
Our forecast reports provide a concise overview of the key drivers of UK economic performance and illustrate the implications of the major risks for business and policy:
- UK Economic Outlook - providing quarterly in-depth analysis of the UK macroeconomy (view sample)
- UK Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the UK (view sample)
- UK Industrial Prospects - analysis of developments and prospects for over 70 industrial sectors, published twice a year (view sample)
- UK Regional Prospects - assessing the outlook for the 12 Government Office Regions, published twice a year (view sample)
- UK Consumer Outlook - providing forecasts for spending on over 50 consumer product areas (view sample)
Outlook conferences
Our outlook conferences are a highly effective way to keep up-to-date on the major issues facing the UK economy. They provide you with the opportunity to discuss the key risks that could impact on your business with our team, and to interact with peers from a diverse rang of organisations.
Our presentations provide a non-technical overview of the analysis underpinning our forecasts. And we encourage a lively debate through Q&A with our senior economists.
Issues addressed at recent events include:
- The implications of high oil prices for the UK economy
- Investment returns in a period of low interest rates
- UK housing market: An international perspective
- The changing structure of the UK economy: How will the balance of payments be financed?
- Carbon emissions policy: How will it affect sectoral competitiveness?
- The importance of migration to regional economic growth
Forthcoming events:
Thursday, 1 March 2012 (London: One Great George Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3AA) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World and UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Thursday, 3 May 2012 (London: One Great George Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3AA) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World and UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Thursday, 14 June 2012 (London: One Great George Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3AA) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro; Emerging Markets;
World, UK and Emerging Markets Outlook Conference
Wednesday, 19 September 2012 (London: One Great George Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3AA) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World and UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Wednesday, 10 October 2012 (London: One Great George Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3AA) ; Covering: UK Industry; UK Regional Analysis;
UK Industrial & Regional Outlook Conference
Thursday, 1 November 2012 (London: One Great George Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3AA) ; Covering: UK Macro;
UK Outlook Conference
Wednesday, 21 November 2012 (Oxford Economics, Broadwall House, 21 Broadwall, London SW1 9PL) ; Covering: UK Industry; International Industry;
International Industrial Outlook Conference
Presentations from previous conferences.
Forecast databank
Our forecast databank provides immediate access to a wealth of economic data, forecasts and analytical tools:
- Detailed macro, sectoral and regional forecasts for the UK, together with a wealth of international data
- Thousands of series available
- Forecasts up to 10 years ahead
- Historic data available from 1980
- View data/forecasts on-screen or download in spreadsheet format
- On-line graphics and analysis tools
Scenario analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of alternative scenarios and their implications for the UK economy and for different sectors and regions. Our suite of models provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
- How would a housing market crash affect different regions?
- Which sectors are most sensitive to increases in interest rates?
- How should the government close its fiscal gap?
- The implications of increased savings for pensions
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Forecast coverage
Our UK macro forecasts cover over 300 indicators. And we provide forecasts for 70 sectors nationally and for the 12 Government Office Regions. In addition, we provide detailed forecasts for consumer spending across 50 categories of goods and services, including projections at a local level:
| UK macro indicators | View sample |
| UK sectors | View sample |
| UK regions | View sample |
| Consumer spending | View sample |
Our forecast process
Oxford Economics' forecasting process combines detailed bottom-up analysis by our experienced economists with the rigour and consistency provided by our suite of Macro, Sectoral and Regional Models.
Our UK forecasts are produced as part of our global forecasting process, which involves:
- On-going monitoring of developments by our team of economists
- A series of forecast meetings at the start of each month (macro)/quarter(sectors) to discuss the important news that might change our forecast and to discuss the implications of our latest global macro forecast for UK performance
- Our economists then prepare an initial forecast
- These forecasts are combined and the Oxford Global Models solved to produce a new world and UK forecast, taking into account all of the interactions between different countries and sectors (eg through trade, exchange rates, intermediate purchases, cost linkages etc)
- Our economists review the new forecasts and make modifications reflecting their interpretation of recent data and leading indicators (eg from business surveys)
- The Oxford Global Model is then solved again with a series of iterations towards a new global and UK forecast
- Senior staff continually review the forecast as it evolves to ensure its consistency
- The forecast is made available to clients on the day it is completed via our website, along with an updated dataset for the Oxford Models
- Our regional forecasts are updated every six months in conjunction with our partner, Regional Forecasts
Senior UK Economists
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| Neil Blake is Director of Economic Analysis at Oxford Economics. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Neil was in charge of economic forecasting and consultancy for Experian having previously been a founding director of Business Strategies Ltd. He has also worked for Wharton Econometrics (Global Insight) and the University of East Anglia. He holds degrees from the Universities of York and Warwick.
At Business Strategies and Experian Neil developed a suite of models that include macroeconomic, regional and sub-regional, labour market, local impact, consumer market, property, occupational change, commuting patterns, household formation and demographics. He has also directed Experian Business Strategies European Regional research programme. In earlier work with Wharton Econometrics (WEFA) he also worked on World Modelling systems and foreign exchange forecasts. Current responsibilities include overseeing international regional and industry modeling, UK economic forecasting and input to public sector consultancy.
Altogether, Neil has been involved in economic forecasting for nearly twenty-five years. He has particular interests in the interpretation and use of survey information in economic analysis and in the supply-side analysis of national and regional economies. Dr. Blake has published on a wide range of subjects including economic growth, regional economic modelling, economic history and the use of survey data in economic analysis and forecasting. He was also part of a joint Treasury/DTI/ODPM working group on how to deliver the Government’s Regional Economic Performance Public Service Agreement and has worked on both the Lyons Review on the location of government employment and the Barker Review of the economic effects of restrictions on housing supply and is currently a member of the Department for Community and Local Government’s expert panels on "Neighborhoods, Cities and Regions" and "Housing Market and Planning". ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adrian Cooper is responsible for coordinating and managing Oxford Economics’ global economic analysis, forecasting and consultancy activities, and overseeing its team based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, New York, Philadelphia, Singapore and the UAE. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, ranging from policy advice to government departments in Europe, the US, Africa and Asia to detailed analysis of the economic impact of particular industries and investment proposals.
Adrian spent the first seven years of his career with HM Treasury, England. During this time, he worked on the analysis of tax and other economic policy changes as part of the preparations for the UK Budget. He was also the coordinator of the government's macroeconomic forecast for two years. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1994, Adrian was UK economist for James Capel & Company, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing Capel's own traders.
Adrian was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he achieved a distinction in the MSc in Economics and won the Ely Devons prize for outstanding performance in the degree examinations. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Kieran Ferran is an Economist in the Regional Services Division of Oxford Economics. He is experienced in qualitative and quantitative economic analysis as well as desk based and field research. Since joining Oxford Economics Kieran has been involved in a wide range of consultancy projects. Kieran has recently completed a project requiring the development of detailed forecasts for the UK housing market. Kieran has also completed a detailed statistical analysis of the Life Science and Creative sector in Northern Ireland, the report is designed to provide intelligence to inform strategic planning in the sector. Kieran is also part of a team of economists providing external independent advice to Invest NI across a range of topics including assistance given to foreign and indigenous businesses. Kieran is currently working on a thought leadership project for Deloitte in New York, producing a white paper entitled Sustainability 2015: Preparing for New Market Realities. The study aims to provide an informative commentary on how businesses should prepare to meet sustainability regulations over the next 5 years.Kieran graduated from the Queen’s University of Belfast with a BSc in Economics. Prior to joining Oxford Economics Kieran was employed as a Consultant in the Policy, Research and Economics Division at PricewaterhouseCoopers, whilst there Kieran worked on a wide range of economic and public policy research studies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Neil Gibson is the director of Oxford Economics’ Regional Services Division, having joined Oxford Economics in January 2007 as part of the merger with Regional Forecasts where he was the Managing Director. In his role he is responsible for Oxford’s regional products which include a full suite of UK and Ireland regional and sub-regional models and a programme of regionally focussed research and consultancy. He leads a team based in Belfast, Oxford and London and is part of Oxford Economics' management team. Neil has particular experience in developing forecast models, delivering evidence based policy advice and providing thought leadership on issues facing regional and sub-regional economies. He is a regular commentator in the press on economic matters and a frequent speaker at conferences and seminars. Recently he has been leading Oxford Economics’ research into urban renaissance and the role and importance of cities in supporting future growth as well as analysing the spatial impacts and potential legacy of the recession. Neil also leads the Oxford Economics' regional model development programme which, amongst other activities, has recently embedded the companies carbon research programme into the regional model and mainstreamed land use and housing forecasts. With expertise on the economic conditions in the UK and Ireland, Neil also contributes to the wider global aspects of Oxford Economics' portfolio of work, feeding into the international forecast team, sectoral teams and a range on thought leadership pieces as well as speaking at the firms' conferences.
Neil graduated in 1999 with a degree in economics from the University of Ulster, Jordanstown. He later obtained an MSc in Computers and Applications from Queen’s University in Belfast in 2001. During this period, Neil worked with the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre (NIERC) who formerly assisted in the production of Oxford Economics’ Regional Economic Outlook where he managed the development of the forecasts for the UK regions. Neil also worked as a Senior Economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
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| Graham will be permanently based in Cambridge from the beginning of March. He has worked closely with OEF on forecasting and consultancy for many years as Director of Regional Forecasts Ltd and recently joined Oxford Economics on the merger of the two companies. He was seconded as Special Adviser to the Northern Ireland First Minister on economic policy from November 1999 -2002. Prior to this, he was the Director of the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, the office of which he held since the Centre was established in 1985. Before that, he was a Senior Research Officer in the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge and Economics Fellow of Selwyn College, Cambridge. His research specialisms are regional economic policy and forecasting and small firms. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. He has also published widely on economic development issues in Northern Ireland. He has recently been involved in developing local forecast models for a number of UK urban areas including Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow and Belfast. This work has entailed development of detailed local forecasting models which cover housing variables in addition to economic variables. Advising local government on urban policy to support economic growth is currently a major straw in Graham’s work in Regional Forecasts. He has been advisor to the House of Commons NI Affairs Committee, a member of the Labour Party Commission on the Future of Regional Policy in England, a member of the CBI Corporate affairs Committee in Northern Ireland and a member of the Executive Committee of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in Dublin. He was a member of the NIERC Board from 2002-4, and is currently a member of the Board of the Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland (ERINI). Graham graduated from the University of London in 1968 with a first class degree in geography. After which he also obtained a PhD from the University of Leicester (1974) and degree in mathematics with the Open University (1978). ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Graeme Harrison is a Lead Consultant in the Regional Services Division of Oxford Economics. He leads the All-Island consultancy services (north and south of Ireland), as well as a range of consultancy projects on behalf of public bodies and private organisations in GB. Graeme has also been involved in Oxford Economics’ international consultancy projects, including for the Libyan National Economic Development Board. Graeme’s work ranges from extensive economic modelling, analysis and forecasting to providing guidance in the area of policy planning. Recent major projects Graeme has led / is currently involved in include: London future skill needs; the economic, skills and labour market impact of migration in Northern Ireland; Citi-Scope model for the Ilex Regeneration Plan, and research into international productivity lessons. Graeme has also lead several consultancy projects for the World Bank and DfID in Uganda, most recently undertaking a public expenditure review of the conflict-affected Northern region, and has provided technical macroeconomic advisory services to the Ugandan Ministry of Finance.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Graeme spent 2 years as a Senior Economist working for the Ugandan Ministry of Finance through the distinguished Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Fellowship Programme. Graeme graduated from Queen’s University in 2002 with a first class honours degree in finance and received the Financial Times award for outstanding performance in degree examinations. He later obtained an MSc with distinction, also from Queen’s. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Kerry Houston is the Head of Regional Model Development in the Regional Services Division of Oxford Economics. She heads Oxfords regional and local forecasting team as well as a range of consultancy projects. As Head of Model Development, Kerry has overall responsibility for forecasting and monitoring the UK's regional economies. She co-authors and manages the Regional Economic Outlook report which presents the regional outlooks alongside some analysis. Kerry is a specialist in developing local forecasting models and has taken a lead role in designing local forecast models for a range of local areas including Manchester, Telford, Oldham and Rochdale, the West of Scotland and the Black Country. Kerry is an expert in regional statistics and methods and has lead responsibility for ensuring the accuracy, consistency and appropriateness of data for each project. Kerry is adept at using a wide range of statistical and econometric packages and has considerable experience in developing be-spoke technical solutions to forecasting and analysis issues. Further to this Kerry has a wealth of experience in scenario analysis. Kerry also has taken the lead responsibility on a number of private and public sector consultancy projects including a quarterly forecasts for the Northern Bank, the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model, and Economic Reviews for Scottish Enterprise.
Kerry has recently completed a Post-graduate Diploma in Applied Economics and is currently undertaking a MSC in Applied Economics. Prior to this, Kerry gained a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Ulster. As an undergraduate, Kerry worked within the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre as a research assistant where she provided assistance for the development of the forecasts for the Regional Economic Outlook, and various other economic studies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Mark Magill is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, where he is responsible for managing a range of consultancy projects, with specific focus on regional economic development, programme evaluation and economic impact studies. Mark joined Oxford Economics in 2009 from PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), where he had worked for four years as a consultant within the Policy Research and Economics department. In his role at PwC Mark worked on a number of high profile studies including a study to assess the economic impact of England’s Regional Development Agencies and an evaluation of the Government’s flagship Academies programme. Since joining Oxford Economics Mark has worked on various projects including a study on behalf of the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland to conduct an in depth analysis of a number of European states including Estonia, Finland, Sweden and Ireland to draw upon best practice in these economies and recommend policy actions to help improve Northern Ireland’s productivity growth. Mark has also recently completed a study to assess the effectiveness of business networks on the island of Ireland on behalf of InterTradeIreland. The study has helped to identify the importance of collaboration between businesses, particularly in research and development, within an economy largely comprised of small to medium sized enterprises. Mark is currently working on a thought leadership project for Deloitte in New York, producing a white paper entitled Sustainability 2015: Preparing for New Market Realities. The study aims to provide an informative commentary on how businesses should prepare to meet sustainability regulations over the next 5 years. Mark graduated from the University of Ulster with First class Honours in Economics; he is currently enrolled in an MSc in Economic Management and Policy at the University of Strathclyde.
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| Neil McCullough is Head of local forecasting in Oxford Economics. He is responsible for leading local economic profiling and forecasting assignments at local level across the UK. He has extensive experience in both quantitative and qualitative research methods, with particular emphasis on economic impact studies, econometric modelling and local profiling / forecasting. Neil has over 10 years experience undertaking economic consultancy based assignments for both public and private sector clients. He has lead projects at local, regional and national level within the UK and Ireland, and has lead major international projects whilst in PricewaterhouseCoopers for the CEO and head of global research. His assignments typically involve local or regional forecasting / modelling, including economic analysis, interpretation and policy related recommendations. Recent assignments include estimating the economic impact of the Olympics for the Host Boroughs Unit, and economic prospects for the UK's eight core cities for the Core Cities Group. He was recently seconded to the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment to work on the Independent Review of Economic Policy in Northern Ireland. Neil graduated in 2000 with a degree in economics from the University of Ulster, Jordanstown. He later obtained an MSc in Finance from Queen’s University Belfast in 2002. During this period, Neil worked with the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre (NIERC) who formerly assisted in the production of Oxford Economics’ Regional Economic Outlook. Neil also worked as a Senior Economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Alan Mitchell is an Economist working within the Regional Division of Oxford Economics. Alan has worked for Oxford Economics for over two years, having worked as a Research Assistant in 2008-09 during his university placement year before continuing his role on a part-time basis throughout his final year at university. During his time at Oxford Economics, he has assisted on a wide range of projects and has developed skills in both qualitative research and quantitative analysis. Alan manages a monthly briefing service for Yorkshire Forward in which he provides regular information relating to recent announcements of investments and closures within the Yorkshire region. He also has experience of collecting, collating and verifying data for use in the Oxford regional and local models. In particular, he is involved in the maintenance and development of the Greater Manchester Forecast Model and local forecasting models.
Alan recently graduated Queen’s University Belfast with a First Class Honours degree in Finance, for which he was awarded the Financial Times prize for best overall graduate. Alan resumed full time employment with Oxford Economics as an Economist in July 2009. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate OE's global macroeconomic view including writing for and helping edit OE's regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and specific forecast interests in the the Japanese, Swedish and Danish economies. He is also involved in Oxford Economics' work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, he spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analyzing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised world. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers.
Adam gained a first class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Alan Wilson is a director in Oxford Economics' consultancy division, having joined OEF in 1996, prior to which he was an economic adviser in the Treasury. He leads a range of consultancy projects for commercial companies and government departments. He also oversees Oxford Economics' regional forecasts, and takes an active role in Oxford's macroeconomic forecasting. Recent major projects Alan has been involved with include studies of the impact of aviation on the UK and global economies; producing simulated Tourism Satellite Accounts showing the importance of tourism to 175 economies around the world on behalf of the World Travel & Tourism Council; modelling the interactions between economic activity, migration and housing in Manchester and Salford; and looking at London’s place in the UK economy. Alan graduated from Cambridge University in economics in 1983, and later obtained an MSc with distinction from Birkbeck College, London. Before joining Oxford Economics he spent 12½ years in the Government Economic Service working for a number of departments on a wide range of economic issues. These included 3 years at the Office of Fair Trading advising on competition policy issues, a similar period at the Treasury working on tax policy issues; 2 years at the Treasury forecasting inflation; and finally a year co-ordinating the Treasury's macroeconomic forecasts. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||